Yes. A power that won’t fight can’t win. A power that can’t win ceases to be a power. The author of this article either doesn’t understand what’s at stake or finds it convenient to pretend that he doesn’t.
Agree again Shelly: bottom line regarding this former CIA person with his veneer of sophistication: he likes what Obama did to empower fanaticism. He wants to empower it more. And anyway, he’s so smart he sees that the real problem isn’t Iran anyway. It’s…Israel!
If only Israel hadn’t assassinated Iran’s one and only “moderate”! since the Israelis, being Jewish, have nothing better to do with their energies than go around assassinating poor, murderous, millennial-obsessed Islamist fanatics!
If only the Israelis would stop “sabotaging” the wise diplomacy advocated by the poor, put-upon, wise CIA!
But the stubborn Israelis are … Jewish! So, unaccountably! they just aren’t agreeing to let Iranian fanatics do what the smart CIA wants Israel to do: be sacrificied.
Judeophobia is his tic. The tic is ubiquitous.
I don’t know why I received his jejune, vicious article but I’m desubscribing. God bless you, Shally. The Lord is coming.
The ersatz 'cease-fire' has given both the US and the IRGC time to refill munitions and organize potential attack (US) and defense (Iran). Note that Sec Rubio has mentioned that we have developed new, inexpensive defenses against drone attacks. Reports are that Centcom has doubled our forces in the region in the past month. Meanwhile our blockade is stifling Iran's oil income and creating the risk of shutting down the oil fields. Some say the IRGC cannot pay their forces any longer.
It is likely some of the Gulf states will supply ground troops to take key installations. Renewed 'kinetic' action, destroying infrastructure and the rest of IRGC missile capability, could cause the IRGC to flee and leave 'civilian' leaders to pick up the pieces, i.e. to surrender. Then President Trump dictates terms. If this scenario is plausible, I'd say it's the best option, RIGHT NOW, when "We're close to a deal."
Clausewitz and the operational art. Campaigns are a series of battles conducted to achieve a strategic objective. The destruction of the Iranian conventional military capability and the decapitation of the regime were intermediate objectives that were to add up to removing Iranian physical capability to pursue nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. The decapitation of the regime was to have a secondary effect of opening opportunities for the Iranian people to remove the Islamist/clerical regime. I opine (for what it's worth) that we stopped way too soon. To overcome Iranian intransigence, we needed to completely destroy the regime, the IRGC, etc. Now we have the worst of all possible outcomes. We have a Praetorian Guard, the IRGC, calling the shots, decentralized small boat and missile units that threaten the Straits, the west pursues "the deal" with a regime that is ideologically committed to the death to pursue nukes and missiles. They can now (as many Islamist/Arab/Persian regimes in the past have done) claim victory if they simply survive and are "recognized" as a negotiating equal to the US -- while obstructing us, the West, the IAEA, etc., at every turn. We have not changed their behavior at all -- which would require an unconditional surrender a la WWII or our own Civil War.
There can be no deal with an apparition, a psychotic one in fact. that of Iran's leadership. Trump knows this, and is the reason I agree with your title stuck. But not completely. I hope that apparition will congeal into the firmament soon, giving us a true partner to negotiate with, or one to vaporize for the benefit of the world.
If you sad this about the Nazi regime would you have had the same responses?
The answer is/are the same
Truman knew
Ike knew
The Irani Regime must be changed into a civil, rationale, Non religious regime
Or
We will have taught them they can win and will be further emboldened
Do whatever it takes
Or
Get out of the way and let the Israelis do it. They understand what is at stake
Yes. A power that won’t fight can’t win. A power that can’t win ceases to be a power. The author of this article either doesn’t understand what’s at stake or finds it convenient to pretend that he doesn’t.
Absolutely the Israeli regime understands. If Iran chooses to use a nuclear weapon, Or a dirty bomb, it is they who will pay the price
Agree again Shelly: bottom line regarding this former CIA person with his veneer of sophistication: he likes what Obama did to empower fanaticism. He wants to empower it more. And anyway, he’s so smart he sees that the real problem isn’t Iran anyway. It’s…Israel!
If only Israel hadn’t assassinated Iran’s one and only “moderate”! since the Israelis, being Jewish, have nothing better to do with their energies than go around assassinating poor, murderous, millennial-obsessed Islamist fanatics!
If only the Israelis would stop “sabotaging” the wise diplomacy advocated by the poor, put-upon, wise CIA!
But the stubborn Israelis are … Jewish! So, unaccountably! they just aren’t agreeing to let Iranian fanatics do what the smart CIA wants Israel to do: be sacrificied.
Judeophobia is his tic. The tic is ubiquitous.
I don’t know why I received his jejune, vicious article but I’m desubscribing. God bless you, Shally. The Lord is coming.
As long as the Lord isn’t coming for me right now, it’s ok
I have a few more things I would like to do before my time is up, God willing
Terrific post
nice summary of the options
The worst option is the nuclear one, to say the least, other than that mostly accurate.
The ersatz 'cease-fire' has given both the US and the IRGC time to refill munitions and organize potential attack (US) and defense (Iran). Note that Sec Rubio has mentioned that we have developed new, inexpensive defenses against drone attacks. Reports are that Centcom has doubled our forces in the region in the past month. Meanwhile our blockade is stifling Iran's oil income and creating the risk of shutting down the oil fields. Some say the IRGC cannot pay their forces any longer.
It is likely some of the Gulf states will supply ground troops to take key installations. Renewed 'kinetic' action, destroying infrastructure and the rest of IRGC missile capability, could cause the IRGC to flee and leave 'civilian' leaders to pick up the pieces, i.e. to surrender. Then President Trump dictates terms. If this scenario is plausible, I'd say it's the best option, RIGHT NOW, when "We're close to a deal."
Clausewitz and the operational art. Campaigns are a series of battles conducted to achieve a strategic objective. The destruction of the Iranian conventional military capability and the decapitation of the regime were intermediate objectives that were to add up to removing Iranian physical capability to pursue nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. The decapitation of the regime was to have a secondary effect of opening opportunities for the Iranian people to remove the Islamist/clerical regime. I opine (for what it's worth) that we stopped way too soon. To overcome Iranian intransigence, we needed to completely destroy the regime, the IRGC, etc. Now we have the worst of all possible outcomes. We have a Praetorian Guard, the IRGC, calling the shots, decentralized small boat and missile units that threaten the Straits, the west pursues "the deal" with a regime that is ideologically committed to the death to pursue nukes and missiles. They can now (as many Islamist/Arab/Persian regimes in the past have done) claim victory if they simply survive and are "recognized" as a negotiating equal to the US -- while obstructing us, the West, the IAEA, etc., at every turn. We have not changed their behavior at all -- which would require an unconditional surrender a la WWII or our own Civil War.
Refer to Uncle Remus' story about Brer Rabbit and the Tar Baby. That explains exactly the current situation.
The Tar Baby analogy occurred to me, also. A fair description of current situation? Don't know, but maybe.
There can be no deal with an apparition, a psychotic one in fact. that of Iran's leadership. Trump knows this, and is the reason I agree with your title stuck. But not completely. I hope that apparition will congeal into the firmament soon, giving us a true partner to negotiate with, or one to vaporize for the benefit of the world.